The highly-anticipated UEFA Champions League draw is almost upon us, and as we lead up to the big announcement, a number of interesting scenarios have been set up.
In reality, anyone could face anyone this year in the Champions League, and some tasty encounters could be in store. We wanted to know which teams have the highest likelihood of facing a particular side in the Round of 16, and we found some truly compelling match-ups. Want the lowdown on the likeliest matches in the knockouts? This is the place for you.
CITY-ATLETI (29%) ES EL ENFRENTAMIENTO MÁS PROBABLE DE LOS OCTAVOS DE FINAL DE LA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2018-19: aquí tienes todas las probabilidades de todos los enfrentamientos posibles para el sorteo que se celebrará el próximo lunes. pic.twitter.com/NxTNmXIpRY
— MisterChip (Alexis) (@2010MisterChip) December 12, 2018
This statistician took to Twitter to let us know which sides can play which other teams in the draw, making for some interesting viewing. So here are the predictions based on available data.
Based on the data, the most likely match-up to take place in the knockouts will be Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid with a whopping 29% likelihood of it happening. Highest possible likelihood of other top English teams matches them with a giant of Europe.
Manchester United vs Borussia Dortmund, Liverpool vs Borussia Dortmund and Tottenham Hotspur vs Borussia Dortmund are all at the highest possible odds to take place, with almost 18% per the data. Only one such tie can obviously take place, but either of these match-ups promise to be exciting.
Barcelona vs Schalke has the highest probability for the Catalans, with a chance of 18.3%, while Real Madrid vs Schalke may also take place as far as the reigning UCL Champions are concerned.
Juventus, Bayern Munich, Porto and PSG all have Atletico Madrid as their most likely opponents in the knockouts, making this a draw that should surely be worth watching.
Conditional probability appears to have been used to predict possible match-ups, so one team can be linked with many, as can be seen, preparing several scenarios in the process.
It is pertinent to note that the Winners(seeded team) of each group will always take on the Runners-up(unseeded team) of another group. Further, no team can be drawn against one that was in their group or a team that is from the same national association (for e.g. Manchester United vs Liverpool).
Which of these matches are you most excited to see? Let us know your views on the UEFA Champions League draw.
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